If it wasn't for me, I'd do brilliantly

Christmas has come. Christmas has gone. The tree remains. The wrapping has gone. The decorations still sparkle. Christmas markets are still around (as above), but quieter. The days between Christmas and New Year are here, that odd period of limbo, where the last year, 2015, lingers, hanging on to...

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Margin is too small

Saturday mornings are perhaps not the times at which we associate that the brain is most awake. It is more time for slumber, than the gathering of thoughts. Unable to come up with anything remotely useful to say on an early Saturday morning, I tweeted the following: trying to think of something...

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Fed up of hikes?

In recent years, Christmas in London has been accompanied by the sparkling lights and loud sounds of Winter Wonderland in Hyde Park. I've never been to real German Christmas market, so for me this "faux" version is still a bit of a novelty and never fails to cheer me, even if it is somewhat hectic...

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Writing about nothing

There's a certain deliciousness in writing reams of prose which in effect say nothing, using words merely to enhance the reader's vision of the scene. This sentiment might seem ridiculous but bear with me for a moment. Just as the richness of light envelopes the human eye to enable it to see, it is...

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Dovish hike? Our panelists' thoughts on FX

I have always been a firm believer that having discussions with other market participants is a powerful way to test your own views, both for discretionary and quant traders. Furthermore it can be an important way to understand how the market is positioned and to see how your views fit into that....

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Another year over

So, this is Christmas And what have you done? Another year over And a new one just begun - John Lennon Time is jumping and skipping its way to that point of the year, when the current year fades into the past and the new year beckons us to the future. The lights of Christmas have begun to shine,...

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A sunny life trading?

Let me take a guess! You're sitting in America reading this? If you are, I hope you're not too far from a burger joint I'd like to visit one of these days! Well, it's probably a fairly good guess, given the Internet traffic that comes to this website, is mostly from US IP addresses. However, wherever...

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In Notts over Salford-ing the stream

At the top of the English football pyramid sits the Premier League, with the likes of Chelsea and Manchester playing in front of tens of thousands of spectators, cheering (or jeering) as well known footballers ply their trade. Below, that, there's the Championship, League One and League Two, collectively...

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Ice hockey fighting markets

Ice hockey is one of those games, where even the casual observer can understand the basic gist of the game. You literally have to score goals to win, however difficult that might be. I don't claim to understand every rule of the game, but whenever I've watched it, it's been fast and fun to watch....

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The Fed mandate for chocolate

For a moment, imagine you are in a chocolate shop or one which sells delightful cakes (as above). I suspect, your objective is to buy some chocolate or something similar. It is unlikely that you are visiting in order to lose weight. If you have a mandate to lose your weight, then visiting a chocolate...

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Burgers or macarons?

​ We all face choices, every day of our life. However, often the questions we might ask ourselves aren't really choices, because we are not always forced to choose. For example, in a restaurant, when we browse a menu, there is not really a choice between a main course or a dessert. The courses are...

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Not always plane sailing

​ Travelling is rarely about the journey. People generally don't fly across the Atlantic to endure hours up in the sky cramped in a seat for the sake of it. It's all about getting to your destination and the time you spend there. Yet, the journey bit is the inevitable part of the whole travelling...

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Trading cookies

I've spent nearly a week in the USA, mostly to present my research at various funds, public talks and also at the Fed. I have admittedly, spent a rather large amount of my spare time sampling the most calorific parts of American cuisine: burgers, cheesecakes and cookies (including the one pictured...

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Predicting the past

I can predict the future. Although, if that were even remotely true, I probably wouldn't be sitting here writing a blog. Instead, I'd be lounging about on a beach somewhere. However, despite it being a totally inaccurate statement, I hope that it has encouraged you, the reader, to take a few moments...

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Burger parity

I recently visited Frankfurt and Zurich to help launch Thalesians quant finance talks there (a special thanks goes to Jochen Papenbrock, Adrian Zymolka and Swati Mittal for organising the events there). Travelling from Frankfurt to Zurich, I noticed several major differences. One difference is the...

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Fed (mountain) hikes

The market has been awash with speculation about when the Fed might hike, continually watching for clues from Fed communications. The recent symposium of central bankers at Jackson Hole, organised by the Kansas Fed, presented the market with another opportunity to search for clues. Comments at Jackson...

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All along the watchtower

In days past, I had compact discs (or even cassette tapes). I'd listen to albums from end to end. With the advent of music compression such as MP3 and subsequent innovations like Spotify and Apple Music, we digest our music in very different ways. I've noticed that I listen to a much more eclectic...

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