Tuesday, 30 December 2014

Polls (not so) apart

11:55 Posted by The Thalesians (@thalesians) No comments
In a recent blog post, I discussed the notion of consensus expectations following on from my own views for 2015 which I published for Thalesians subscribers (and given it's Christmas, I've given it away for free download). There are many ways to measure market consensus (or the world the market...

Friday, 26 December 2014

Imagine

00:15 Posted by The Thalesians (@thalesians) No comments
The days between Christmas and the impending new year seem like days in limbo. The current year is withering away by the hour too quickly to amount to anything, whilst the new year is still somewhat of an intangible mirage. Whilst these days might be occupied by the tail end of left overs and frenzied...

Saturday, 20 December 2014

Consensus-ing agreement in FX markets in 2015

10:37 Posted by The Thalesians (@thalesians) 1 comment
Why is Manhattan real estate so expensive? The simplest explanation is that a lot of people want to live there. There seems to be a consensus that Manhattan is a great place to live. At the same time, supply is relatively constrained. Yes, developers are continually building higher, providing more...

Sunday, 7 December 2014

Tip of the ice-burger

19:16 Posted by The Thalesians (@thalesians) No comments
Minetta Tavern. New York. Black Label Burger. Everything about this burger suggests it has a certain quality lacking from most other burgers. The meat is tender, from a sirloin steak, without any of the unpleasant stringiness that might afflict other burgers. It appears that many people agree, judging...